Almanac Trader — Bullish Before July 4th, Bearish After

Trading the three days ahead of the July 4th Independence
Day holiday has historically been stronger than the days after the holiday. Trading
on the day before and after the holiday is often lackluster. Volume tends to
decline on either side of the holiday as vacations begin early and/or finish
late. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have recorded net
losses on the day after.

This has become more pronounced in recent years and was the
case again last year. However, over the past thirteen years since 2011, trading
after Independence Day has softened notably. DJIA has declined ten times in 14
years on the day after. S&P 500 has slipped eight times. Average
performance remains fractionally positive. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have more up
days after the 4^th but R2K averages losses the two days after the 4^th.