by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 02:09:00 PM
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to +1.8% q/q saar. [May 30th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
The goods trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in April, reflecting a sharp decline in goods imports and a moderate increase in goods exports. The Advance Economic Indicators report indicated a significantly larger decline in imports than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the personal income and spending report were modestly softer than our previous assumptions. On net, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 1.0pp to +3.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.6%. We continue to see the headline Q1 and Q2 GDP growth readings as distorted measures of economic growth because of measurement challenges related to swings in imports around tariff increases. [May 30th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.64 percentage points to 1.45 percentage points, while the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.7 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent. [May 30th estimate]
