by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2025 03:52:00 PM
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Cooling Off in May; Inventory Still Falling (pay content). Brief excerpt:
With inventory set to continue declining month-to-month, and the cost to automakers of the tariffs more strongly kicking in by July, sales are likely to continue sequential weakness into the summer – unless automakers decide to eat most of the increased cost. Based on the North America production outlook for the next several months, most are not planning to eat a lot of the cost.
emphasis added
This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for May (Red).
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.9 million SAAR, would be down 7.9% from last month, and up 0.5% from a year ago.
Car buyers rushed to buy over the previous couple of months to beat the tariffs. There will be further payback in coming months.
