by Calculated Risk on 5/09/2025 08:12:00 AM
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Recent shifts in U.S. policies on trade and immigration
have introduced volatility in financial markets and
heightened uncertainty for firms. The ultimate
outcomes and impacts of these policy changes remain
unclear. Nevertheless, U.S. rail volumes have thus far
remained stable, and many core economic indicators
continue to signal underlying resilience. Railroads have
long adapted to changing conditions, a legacy of
resilience that continues today.
emphasis added
This table from the AAR shows the year-over-year change in carloads by category.
U.S. railroads originated 1.13 million total carloads in
April 2025, up 6.2% (65,524 carloads) over April 2024.
That’s the largest year-over-year percentage gain in 16
months and the third largest in nearly four years.
Carloads averaged 225,569 per week in April—slightly
below March, but otherwise the highest since October
2024, with gains in 13 of 20 categories tracked by AAR.
Through the first four months of 2025, total carloads
were up 1.8% (67,282 carloads) over the same period
last year, with 11 of 20 carload categories seeing gains.
emphasis added
U.S. rail intermodal traffic, which is not included in
carload counts, totaled 1.36 million containers and
trailers in April 2025, up 7.4% (93,244 units) over April 2024. Weekly intermodal volume averaged 272,300
units in April 2025. The only April with higher intermodal volume was April 2021. In fact, April 2021 holds the
all-time intermodal record for any month, averaging 290,955 units per week. Year-to-date intermodal volume
in 2025 through April was 4.90 million units, up 8.1% (365,456 units) over 2024 and the second highest ever
for the first four months of a year (again behind 2021). Intermodal volume closely tracks port activity, making
it a bellwether for international trade trends.
As yet, there is no apparent impact on carloads and intermodal from policy changes.
