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The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo released the monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) this week, showing builder confidence falling to the lowest levels since 2023. This is about as low as the index has been since the housing crisis more than a decade ago. While persistently high interest rates remain a top concern for the housing market, a growing number of builders cited difficulty pricing new homes in light of the rapidly changing outlook for material costs due to tariffs. With that in mind, it’s important to note that 90% of this month’s responses came in before the US/China trade announcement. Not only did that announcement drastically reduce tariffs for 90 days, it also offered a proof of concept that will likely see the outlook improve in the next survey due to lower material costs and a more upbeat consumer. Additional details are available at https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index.
