by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2025 11:29:00 AM
From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic recovery to 2029
Whatever hopes the travel industry had in a full recovery to 2019 levels of travel bookings this year have officially been dashed, according to one economist.
“Our pre-inauguration forecast expected international travel to nearly fully recover in 2025 to 2019 levels. We’re now pushing that out to 2029,” Adam Sacks, president at Tourism Economics, said on a webinar Tuesday. “Now we’re looking at a full 10 years between pre-pandemic and what will be full recovery. And, of course, that comes with significant economic losses.”
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The U.S. is already seeing a decline in international travelers, Sacks said. According to National Travel and Tourism Office data, overseas visitor arrivals into the U.S. in March dropped 11.6% year over year.
“What we see is that the things that have really affected international [travel] — it has as much to do with words as it does with action,” Sacks said. “It’s not only policy, it is rhetoric, the trade war itself, it needs to be said, it’s intrinsically combative. It’s called a war.”
Not only are Trump’s tariffs effecting global sentiment, but the way he speaks of commandeering other countries, reduced support for Ukraine and enforces deportations is driving off travelers.
While domestic travel should still remain strong, maybe even buoyed by Americans staying closer to home, the drop in international travel is “not going to fully compensate for the losses,” Sacks said.
