Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 20th = Downtrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
- Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Downtrend
- On Balance Volume Indicator: Downtrend
ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend.
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1.5%. The index sits ~7% below the 50-day moving average and ~8% below the 200-day moving average.
SPX Price & Volume Chart for Apr 20 2025
All three technical indicators ( ADX, OBV, and Institutional Activity ) remain in bearish territory.
S&P Sector Performance for Week 17 of 2025
Energy was the best sector last week, with Real Estate not far behind. Consumer Discretionary was the worst performer. Consumer Staples is the first sector to return to a bullish bias, while Utilities improved to neutral.
Sector Style Performance for Week 17 of 2025
High Dividend was the best performing style last week; Large Cap Growth the worst. Low Beta shifted from bearish to neutral.
Asset Class Performance for Week 17 2025
All asset classes performed well last week as the U.S. dollar continues to fall. Bitcoin and Oil outperformed. Bonds shifted to neutral from bearish.
COMMENTARY
A relatively quiet week, compared to the rest of April, with only one day of headline induced volatility.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, acknowledging that the U.S. economy has slowed, but not enough to warrant any action by the FOMC. He expressed concern about uncertainty from the recent tariff announcements, and stated that the Fed would act if inflation materialized. To market participants, that sounded more like rate hikes than rate cuts.
Perhaps more impactful was Powell’s response to questions about the “Fed put” and whether the central bank would step in if markets plummet. Powell said “no” and then stated that “Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty and that means volatility. But having said that, markets are functioning…They’re orderly and they’re functioning just about as you would expect them to function.” (1)
Best to Your Week!
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