by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 06:31:00 PM
From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt:
If the forecast holds firm, inventory will fall below the year-ago month for the first time in nearly three years. Less inventory could take pressure off automakers and dealers to limit price hikes by absorbing some of the higher costs caused by tariffs, if they remain in place. Conversely, it also means a higher mix of pricier vehicles on dealer lots and lower sales volumes – and automakers, at least for now, are more inclined to emphasize production cuts, and not big discounts to consumers, to manage inventory in the face of weakening demand.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for April (Red).
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 17.4 million SAAR, would be down 2.1% from last month, and up 8.6% from a year ago.
Car buyers have rushed to buy over the last couple of months to beat the tariffs. There will be payback in coming months.
