by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2025 10:00:00 AM
The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2025 today.
The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.
This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.
This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn’t rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn’t use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.
National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2025 were 7.1 percent for rental housing and 1.1 percent for
homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the rate in the first quarter 2024 (6.6 percent)
and not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2024 (6.9 percent).The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.1 percent was higher than the rate in the first quarter 2024 (0.8 percent)
and virtually the same as the rate in the fourth quarter 2024 (1.1 percent).The homeownership rate of 65.1 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2024
(65.6 percent) and lower than the rate in the fourth quarter 2024 (65.7 percent).
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The HVS homeownership rate was decreased to 65.1% in Q1, from 65.7% in Q4. Â
The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.
The HVS homeowner vacancy was unchanged at 1.1% in Q1 from 1.1% in Q4.
The homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so this mirrors the low but increasing levels of existing home inventory).
Once again – this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn’t rely on the absolute numbers.
The rental vacancy rate increased to 7.1% in Q1 from 6.9% in Q4. This is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022 and at the highest level since 2018.
The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.
