There’s no way to sugarcoat it,
unless the market can get back into the green for the year in April, our more
bullish base case scenario for 8-12% gains for 2025 becomes harder to achieve.
Currently, the S&P 500 is tracking the weaker post-election patterns of
republican administrations and after incumbent party losses. This action has
increased the odds of our annual forecast worst case scenario.
2025 is tracking the old school
weak republican president post-election year performance noted on page 28, Stock
Trader’s Almanac 2025. The market is concerned Trump 2.0 and Congress may
be implementing too many drastic measures, which tends to lead to flat to
negative full-year performance. Unless the market can rebound substantially
next month, we are likely in store for some tough sledding through the third
quarter.
