Uncertainty still hangs over the market, economy &
global trade. But based upon the retreat in CBOE Volatility index (VIX) from
around 60 back down to around 30, our waterfall
decline research, and the Republican post-election year seasonal trend, the
bottom could be in, at least in the short term.
S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal patterns all show
some degree and duration of strength from around now through sometime between
early June to early August, before the next bout of seasonal weakness could
arrive at the same time the 90-day tariff pause ends.
The market may be giving the Trump administration the
benefit of the doubt on tariffs for now, but time is running out for them to
start showing progress and announce new meaningful trade deals.
