by Calculated Risk on 3/23/2025 10:05:00 AM
Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY, I noted:
On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.3% from January and are now down 6.7% from the June 2024 peak. This is about the normal seasonal increase in the median price. Typically, the NAR median price increases in the Spring, and tends to peak seasonally in the June report.
Seasonally, median prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May).
And seasonally, prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December).Â
Here is a table of the seasonal percentage increases from January to February, and from January to June (the usual seasonal peak), over the last several years.
The last row shows the seasonal decline from June to January of the following year. Â
In 2020, prices continued to increase in the 2nd half of the year and didn’t peak seasonally until October. And prices only declined slightly in the 2nd half of 2021.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan to Feb | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Jan to Jun | 13.7% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 20.8% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 12.8% | NA |
| Jun to Jan | -8.9% | -6.7% | 3.1% | -3.4% | -12.8% | -7.7% | -7.8% | NA |
The 2025 increase in median prices from January to February was about the normal seasonal increase.
Normally we’d expect median prices to increase 10% to 12% over the next four months, before declining in the 2nd half of the year. With more inventory, the seasonal pattern will be interesting this year.
