Wall Street is largely bullish on Nvidia stock ahead of the chipmaker’s flagship GPU Technology Conference on Tuesday, with some analysts saying its valuation is compelling after recent losses. Nvidia’s GTC conference has long been a catalyst for the stock, but some analysts warn skepticism on the broader AI trade could persist, despite more manageable expectations. After back-to-back years of incredible gains, Nvidia shares have cratered nearly 17% over the past month and roughly 14% year to date. The reversal comes amid a broader market pullback that has been fueled by concerns over U.S. tariff plans, AI spending and exuberant tech valuations. For the past five years, Nvidia has typically outperformed its peers during the week of the GTC. But a boost tied to the conference may not last long, as the stock’s six-session win streak in March 2024 was soon followed by a double-digit pullback. Analysts polled by LSEG aren’t shaken by Nvidia’s recent performance, as 59 out of 64 analysts covering Nvidia have a strong buy or buy rating on the stock. During the conference, CEO Jensen Huang is expected to announce Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra GB300 AI chip platform, scheduled to be released this fall, and its next-generation AI graphics processor Vera Rubin , which is targeted for a 2026 rollout. Huang is also expected to discuss Nvidia’s advancements with AI agents, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles and quantum computing. Investors will be watching to see if these tech updates can reignite confidence in the stock. There is also a desire for more clarity on how tariffs could affect Nvidia’s gross margins and growth trajectory. ‘Fundamentals will eventually prevail’ Several Wall Street firms reiterated their optimistic outlook on Nvidia ahead of the conference, citing the company’s competitive advantage with its strong data center business and growth opportunities in AI compute and networking, robotics and workstations. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya kept his buy rating and $200 price target, citing the stock’s “compelling valuation.” He also anticipates attractive updates on Blackwell Ultra and Rubin and in hot areas such as physical AI . Arya expects Nvidia to keep its leading 80%-85% market share in chips given its GPU platform and broad product pipeline despite the heavy competition in the Application-Specific Integrated Circuit, or ASIC, market. “NVDA’s ability to innovate at a rack/data center level coupled with optimized software is its major competitive moat,” Arya wrote in a recent note, adding that changes tied to the Blackwell transition will likely be more manageable from here. “While market volatility and China headlines could pressure the stock [near term], we still believe fundamentals will eventually prevail.” “While more qualitative, NVDA comments re AI TAM and sustainability of growth [are] key,” he continued, saying gross margin recovery is key to the stock’s growth. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore reiterated Nvidia as a top pick with high conviction ahead of the conference. He expects the stock can reach new highs in the second half of 2025, assuming a regular stock environment. “NVIDIA should outgrow all of its competition, including ASICs, in 2025 and in particular in 2h25, with the roadmap putting pressure on that competition to keep up,” Moore said in a Monday note to clients. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia stock performance. Baird kept its $195 price target on shares ahead of the conference, citing Nvidia’s “strong positioning in AI datacenter markets/share gains.” Overlapping generations Several analysts mentioned developments in Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture as a catalyst for the stock’s continued growth. However, there are concerns about overlapping Blackwell announcements. “We believe Blackwell demand remains very strong, residual bottlenecks on GB200 racks are now fully resolved, and NVDA is now pulling in timing for B300/GB300 (Blackwell Ultra) by 1Q with significant volume shipments now likely in CQ3:25,” UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri said in a Monday note. “Uncertainly around AI Diffusion will likely remain high, but we remain bullish with the stock still trading < 20x our C2026E EPS,” he added as he maintained his buy rating and 12-month price target of $185. Arcuri noted he is confident in the pace of Nvidia’s GPU shipments even with the uncertainty over potential export restrictions from the U.S. JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee expressed confidence that the ramp of the Blackwell Ultra remains on track for the second half of the year, and said Rubin chip details could be a “positive for the Nvidia supply chain.” Morgan Stanley’s Moore added that there was “clear pent-up demand for Blackwell” in the last quarter and GB200 should still see a solid ramp-up as the GB300 is introduced. But market sentiment remains an overhang, according to several analysts. JPMorgan noted broader “investor skepticism” heading into the GTC, while Deutsche Bank cited potential risks with its upcoming GPU platform roadmap. “We acknowledge the market-wide pull-back offers an intriguing entry point for this well-loved stock, yet we prefer to remain on the sidelines until macro volatility resolves and more confidence in sustainable growth in the out-years for in NVDA is found,” Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore wrote in a recent note, reiterating his hold rating and $145 price target. “While we expect GB300 to offer significant [generation over generation] improvements vs. B200 systems, we wonder how customers will respond/prioritize to the somewhat unintentional overlapping of product generations,” he said.
