Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday - The Legend of Hanuman

Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday



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Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday


1 Hour, 13 Min ago

Despite coming in much weaker than expected, Retail Sales (the day’s only big-ticket market mover) didn’t provide much help for bonds. The catch was that the key internal component (the control group, aka retail sales excluding autos/gas/building materials) was stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground on the news, but began to rally about 30 minutes later. The net effect was essentially a restoration of Friday’s average mid-day trading levels, thus making for a ho-hum Monday.  

    • Retail Sales
      • 0.2 vs 0.6 f’cast, -0.9 prev
    • Retail Sales “control group”
    • NY Fed Manufacturing
      • -20 vs -0.75 f’cast, 5.7 prev
    • Business Inventories
      • 0.3 vs 0.3 f’cast, -0.2 prev
    • NAHB Builder Confidence

08:35 AM

Weaker after retail sales, but a hair stronger on the day.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.311.

12:28 PM

Nice recovery for reasons unknown (some big trades at 9:20am, but that’s about it). MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.265

03:31 PM

Losing some ground in the PM hours, but still slightly stronger.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.6bps at 4.307


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