Loop Capital has one warning for FedEx investors: don’t be the last one standing. Analyst Rick Paterson downgraded FedEx from hold to sell after the shipping company cut its full-year profit and revenue forecasts on Thursday, citing soft demand and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy amid changing tariff and trade policies. Paterson also slashed his FedEx price target by 22%, to $221 from $283, implying shares could fall another 10% from their last close. The stock, which has already tumbled 12.5% this year, traded nearly 8% lower premarket Friday. Fears about a U.S. recession and President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariff rates on April 2 could threaten FedEx’s earnings, Paterson said in a Friday note to clients. Memphis-based FedEx is generally regarded as a barometer of the global economy as its business touches a wide variety of global industries. FDX .SPX 1M mountain FedEx vs S & P 500 in past month. “The bigger issues are twofold,” Paterson wrote. “Like it or not, FedEx’s brand is synonymous with global trade. Secondly, with economists ratcheting up U.S. recession risk, be aware that FedEx is a really bad recession stock because thin Express margins amplify the earnings hit whenever there’s pressure on the top line.” “It’s not one you want to own if things go south. Hopefully it won’t come to that, but FYI,” he said. Paterson added that FedEx is the “last transport stock” investors want to own if businesses and consumers start pulling back on spending in the face of a possible recession. He cited FedEx’s historically dramatic earnings compression after macroeconomic slowdowns since 2001. Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs all maintained buy ratings on FedEx on Friday, with price targets above $300.
