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Winning Streak Finally Ends, But it Could Have Been Worse
Take yesterday out of the equation and today’s closing levels are better than any other day since early December. That’s not a bad way to conclude 9 days in a row of bonds making intraday improvements. In the absence of data, traders took cues from equities and technicals. On the technical note, 10yr yields bounced at 4.11 right at the start of the overnight session and again in the 10am hour. Yields retraced most of yesterday afternoon’s rally in concert with a stock market bounce. Days like today become much more likely than not when bonds stretch winning streaks to 8 days or more. This could be a simple attempt to catch a breath, but the jury’s out until we see the rest of the week’s data and whether or not yields actually care about 4.11%.Â
Market Movement Recap
09:59 AM Moderately stronger overnight and holding. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.142
12:26 PM weakest levels. 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.177 and MBS now unchanged 5.5 coupons and down almost an eighth in 5.0 coupons. Â
03:18 PM Weakest levels of the day with MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.213
