Calculated Risk: YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2025 08:48:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 3.8% YoY.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through February 2025.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.2% YoY as of February 2025, unchanged from -1.2% YoY in January.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.0% YoY in February, up from -0.1% YoY in January.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through February) and housing from the PCE report (through January)

Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January. Housing (PCE) was up 4.5% YoY in January, down from 4.7% in December.

This is still catching up with private new lease data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in February.