Céad Míle Fáilte! After a challenging first half of March, the
market could sure use some good luck to have any chance at a full-month gain. Saint
Patrick’s Day is the only cultural event that perennially lands in March.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.27%
on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a
gain of 0.07% the day after and the day before averages a 0.11% advance. More
recently since 1994, Saint Patrick’s Day market performance has been improving.
S&P 500 has been up 23 times in 31 years with an average gain of 0.70%.
In the ten years, since 1950, when St. Patrick’s Day falls
on a Monday, like this year, S&P 500 has been green six times but posts an average
loss of -0.01% due to a 3.01% drop in 1980. Fridays before have been somewhat weaker,
up 5, down 5 but with an average gain of +0.04%. Tuesdays following the parades
and revelry have been mixed, up 6 of 10 with an average loss of -0.08%.
