Years Ending in ‘5' and the Presidential Cycle (Preview)

By Lawrence G. McMillan

There are some longer term seasonal patterns that affect the stock market.  One is that years ending in ‘5’ have generally been quite bullish since the first one in 1895 (to go back that far, one must observe the Dow, for $SPX did not exist).  In fact, such years were mostly wildly bullish until 2005, when $SPX registered only a small gain (and the Dow registered a small loss).  Even worse, in 2015, both registered small losses.  However, overall, years ending in ‘5’ have a strong track record.