by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2025 01:17:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap
A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap
Over the last few years there has been a sizable gap between trend growth in the Household Survey estimate of employment and the Establishment Survey estimate of employment, with the Household Survey showing significantly slower growth than the Establishment Survey. I and others noted that much of this “gap” reflected the fact that previous estimates from the Household Survey were “benchmarked” to population estimates that for the last few years were way to low because of an underestimate of net international migration, and that updated population estimates (Vintage 2024) that massively revised up NIM over the last few years would result in a huge upward revision in the household estimate of employment in the January Employment Report.
In today’s employment report the BLS said updated population controls resulted in an huge increase in the Household Survey estimate of employment for December 2024 of 2 million (1.2%).
At the same time, the BLS reported that its annual benchmarking of the Establishment Survey resulted in a decline in the seasonally-adjusted estimate of nonfarm payroll employment for March 2024 of 598,000 (-0.4%).
As a result of these two revisions, the “gap” between the Household Survey of employment and the Establishment Survey estimate of employment – after adjusting for definitional differences – has narrowed substantially.
There is much more in the article.
