Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Banks See Mortgages In Arrears Climb Despite State Intervention
Canadian banks are seeing mortgages in arrears climb despite extensive measures to suppress them. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA), an industry-run trade group, data shows that more residential borrowers are falling behind on payments. There were over 1`0k mortgages in arrears (90 days past due) in October, about 0.21% of the total tracked by the CBA. This represents a 25% increase from a year before, and the data isn’t even comprehensive—including only higher quality lenders. While the rate isn’t exactly the highest, it happens to be one rising at an usually fast pace despite policymakers deploying billions in resources to help suppress the volume.
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Toronto Mortgage Delinquency Rate Hits A 9 Year High
Toronto mortgage delinquencies have hit a 9-year high, according to new data from Equifax. Toronto CMA saw the delinquency rate reach 0.16% in Q2 2024, doubling the rate a year prior. Since falling to a record low in 2022, the rate has climbed a whopping 166% to hit the highest rate since 2015. The rapid deterioration is made even more stunning by the fact this excludes higher risk lending that may not report to the credit agency. The rate is also rising at a time when policymakers are actively trying to suppress the rate from climbing, and banks have been ordered to do almost anything to prevent this.
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Canada Hits A Record For Active Businesses, Growth Driven By Real Estate
Canadian economic news isn’t all bad these days—at least not at first glance. Data from the national statistics agency shows the number of active businesses in Canada hit a new record high in September. The surprising news comes after months of business closures outpacing new openings, though the good news came with a caveat. Most of the new business growth is in real estate and related industries like construction. In other words, Canada’s economy is becoming further dependent on real estate, an industry the government has been sinking billions into to prop up in recent years.
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Canadian Temporary Resident Applications & Extensions Fall Ahead of Schedule
Canada plans to slow its population growth next year, but it’s naturally falling ahead of schedule. Starting next year, the Government of Canada plans to reduce its population, primarily by shrinking its temporary resident population which has more than doubled since 2021. Data shows the country is already receiving fewer applications, falling 16% to 436k in October. That’s still double the volume seen back in 2021, but it may indicate the appeal of Canada is falling faster than the need to throttle residents. Which makes sense—if you heard a country is reversing its policies on immigration due to the economic chaos caused by poor planning, would it still be your top choice for economic migration?
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