Canadian Temporary Resident Applications & Extensions Fall Ahead of Schedule

Canada plans to slow its population growth next year, and it might be ahead of schedule. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows applications for temporary residency, including extensions, declined in October. The decline comes ahead of a policy to shrink the temporary resident population, which has more than doubled over the past 3 years. 

About Today’s Data

Today we’re looking at temporary resident applications, including extensions. Temporary residents are those with visas residing in the country on a non-permanent basis. The category includes those on temporary work visas, study permits, refugee applications, and special permits. Extensions are applications filed by existing temporary residents that are looking to stay on this visa a little longer without pursuing a more permanent arrangement. 

Canadian Temporary Resident Applications & Extensions Are Falling

October applications and extensions for temporary residency received by the IRCC.

Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.

Canadian temporary resident applications are finally beginning to contract after a massive surge. The IRCC received 436.2k new applications for temporary residency, including those looking to extend their existing visa. This is down 16% compared to the same month last year, but still much higher than 2022 (+17%), and nearly double 2021 (+94%). Slowing, but only after a sharp increase. 

Year To Date Applications Are Only Slightly Lower Than Last Year

The trend is a new one, and beginning to roll back year to date (YTD) growth. New applications and extensions are down 2% at 5.17 million YTD. October alone made up three-quarters of the total decline observed over this period. 

Despite the pullback from last year, a look at recent years shows this is just a drop in the bucket. YTD applications are still significantly higher than 2022 (+29%), and nearly 3x the amount seen in 2021 (+182%). This year might be slower but even cutting this number in half would be a big change from just a few years prior. 

Canada Plans To Shrink Its Temporary Resident Population In 2025

Despite the temporary nature of these visas, many people see them as a gateway to immigration. Canada’s policymakers leaned on that appearance to help drive the recent breakneck population growth we’ve seen in recent years. 

Since 2021, the country’s temporary resident population has grown a whopping 150% to 2.96 million people. It’s not possible to add the equivalent of a major city-worth of temporary residents without sharp growing pains that are behind the declines. 

The drop is one part appeal and one part policy. There’s evidence that applications in some segments were already beginning to fall before policymakers slowed applications. Rising tensions between Canada and India, the largest source of foreign students, resulted in slowing study permit applications back in 2023. Canada followed this by announcing policies to limit study permits and restrict schools eligible for study permits. 

The policies were followed up with tighter measures, including a freeze on low wage temporary worker applications in major cities with elevated unemployment. More recently, policymakers have announced they would attempt intentional population de-growth, primarily by limits on temporary workers. With applications falling ahead of the first year, the real hurdle will be managing the 1.2 million temporary residents whose visas expire next year. 

You Might Also Like